India’s property market has seen huge growth for years. Now, housing costs might stay flat instead of dropping hard, says investment banker Sarthak Ahuja.
Ahuja shared his thoughts in a LinkedIn post. It got a lot of talk from home buyers and real estate experts. He asked if the hot market can keep going strong. “House prices are so high now that few can buy. Will they keep climbing, or will real estate values fall?” he asked.
Ahuja pointed to data from recent years. Home prices in India rose about 10% each year since 2020. But average pay went up only 5% a year. This big difference has made homes harder to buy than ever. It hits big cities like Mumbai and Gurgaon the worst. There, a normal house costs 20 to 30 years of one person’s pay.
Ahuja says builders now focus on fancy high-end projects. They aim for big profits and rich buyers who don’t mind costs. Cheap home options have dropped fast. In Hyderabad, they fell 70%. Mumbai saw a 60% drop. The area around Delhi lost 50% in two years.
This change lines up with more big money flowing into real estate. In 2024, it pulled in $9 billion. That’s 50% more than in 2023. Foreign investors made up 63% of it.
Even with all that cash, home sales fell a lot in the last six months. Still, prices did not drop as some thought. Ahuja says the reason is who owns these high-end spots. Many belong to Indians living abroad, big foreign funds, or super-rich folks. They don’t need to sell fast.
“Home prices in India have never crashed overall,” Ahuja noted. “I see prices staying the same for years. In the next 2 to 3 years, don’t rush to buy out of fear that costs will jump.”
Buyers hold more power now
Homes are still tough to afford. But Ahuja thinks the slow times help real buyers. “Right now, you can push back on builders. Many need to hit sales goals bad,” he said.
India lacks 10 million homes today. That gap could hit 30 million in ten years. So, need for houses stays high in the long run. For now, though, Ahuja expects a break. Not a big fall. It’s a time of steady costs and better deals for buyers after years of fast rises.