Investor and entrepreneur Rajesh Sawhney has raised a red flag about Dubai’s fast-rising real estate prices. He calls the city’s property market a “super bubble” much bigger than the wild price jumps in places like Gurugram, India.
In his post “Dubai: Real Estate Super Bubble,” Sawhney shared time with his cousin, a sharp Dubai property investor. His cousin told him, “Never buy anything more than 100 km from home.” That stuck with Sawhney. It took him back to his 2002 chat with Mike Moritz at Sequoia Capital’s Sand Hill Road office. Moritz explained Sequoia skips startups outside the Bay Area. Their furthest bet? San Francisco.
This year, Sawhney sensed Gurugram’s real estate felt frothy. But in Dubai, he sees it as way worse. “If Gurugram is a bubble, Dubai must be a super bubble,” he noted.
Global groups have issued alerts on Dubai’s hot property scene. Last month’s UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2025 ranked Dubai fifth worldwide for bubble danger. Prices shot up 50% in five years. They’ve gained double digits since mid-2023.
UBS reported real prices rose double digits since mid-2023. Now they’re 50% above levels from five years back—the top jump in the study. Housing bubble risk climbed for a second year in a row. It hit a high point. Incomes lag behind home costs. Dubai’s population grew almost 15% since 2020. An influx of newcomers has squeezed housing stock.
The report pointed out construction nears 2017 peaks. Rivalry for outside real estate cash heats up between Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Riyadh. UBS said Dubai’s basics—like population rise and rules—stay solid. Still, “bubble risk sits at a high level.”
Fitch Ratings warned in May. They predict Dubai home prices will peak this year. Then a mild drop comes late 2025 to 2026. The fall should stay under 15%. Banks and builders can handle it.
India faces its own worries over hot city housing. Real estate expert Vishal Bhargava compared Gurugram’s boom to a “house of cards” lately. He flags risky bets. Home prices jumped since 2021. True buyer need drove less of it than wild guesses, he said.
Hedge fund boss Akshat Shrivastava called buying in Indian cities a bad move last month. He points to too much building, sky-high prices, and strained roads. “Snapping up property in an Indian metro ranks as one of your biggest errors. Builders run the whole show (prices stay steep). Extra growth sparks road woes (cities turn unlivable),” he wrote.